The Goldman Sachs Research team said in its client note that it expects the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to hike interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in March and May.
“In the US, we expect GDP growth to slow to 1.4% in 2023, reflecting a negative impulse from tighter financial conditions. We see a below-consensus 35% probability of entering a recession over the next year due to continued labor market rebalancing and a diminishing drag from fiscal and monetary policy tightening.”
“We expect the Fed to deliver 25bp hikes in March and May for a peak funds rate of 5.00-5.25%. On the fiscal policy front, additional funding in the FY2023 spending bill presents upside risk to our assumption of roughly flat real federal spending growth in 2023.”